As diplomats and defence officials arrive in Munich, there is a sense that this year’s security conference is less about managing crises than about managing expectations. The Munich Security Conference (MSC), long a symbol of transatlantic unity, is bracing itself for what many European analysts describe as another phase of Donald Trump’s “wrecking-ball politics.”
The phrase, drawn from the Munich Security Report released ahead of the gathering, reflects growing concern that the international order underpinning European security is no longer being strained at the edges, but struck at its core. Conference organisers and participants alike expect debates to be shaped by the possibility of further U.S. disruption to alliances, institutions, and assumptions that have defined global security since the end of World War II.
At the heart of the anxiety is predictability. European officials say they can manage disagreement with Washington; what unsettles them is uncertainty. Trump’s approach to foreign policy — transactional, confrontational, and openly skeptical of multilateralism — has raised doubts about the durability of commitments once considered foundational, from NATO’s collective defence principle to coordinated responses on Ukraine and global trade.
The MSC report warns that the cumulative impact of these policies risks accelerating the erosion of a rules-based system that depends as much on trust as on military power. Tariffs imposed on allies, fluctuating rhetoric on defence guarantees, and pressure for rapid burden-sharing are cited not as isolated measures, but as part of a broader worldview that treats alliances as leverage rather than shared responsibility.
U.S. officials reject the characterization, arguing that demands for greater European self-reliance are meant to strengthen, not weaken, Western security. From Washington’s perspective, disruption is framed as overdue correction — forcing allies to invest more seriously in their own defence and confront strategic complacency.
But for many European security experts, intent is secondary to effect. Even if policies are framed as reform, the result has been a growing sense that long-standing arrangements can no longer be assumed to hold. That perception, they argue, complicates deterrence, emboldens adversaries, and forces European states to hedge against uncertainty from their closest ally.
As discussions begin in Munich, the mood is not one of open rupture, but of guarded realism. Officials are preparing for difficult conversations — about autonomy, resilience, and how Europe should respond if U.S. leadership continues to oscillate between engagement and withdrawal.
The MSC has often served as a forum for reaffirming shared values and collective purpose. This year, it may instead function as a space for contingency planning. Bracing for “wrecking-ball politics” does not mean abandoning the transatlantic relationship. It means acknowledging that the order which once felt permanent now requires active defence — sometimes even from the forces that built it.
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