The expiration of the last remaining US-Russia nuclear treaty, the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), in early 2026 has raised significant concerns about the future of global arms control. While the end of the agreement signals a critical moment in the relationship between the two nuclear superpowers, the role of China has emerged as a key factor in the treaty’s demise.

For nearly a decade, New START helped regulate the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia, the two largest nuclear powers, by imposing limits on the number of deployed nuclear warheads and delivery systems. It was a crucial pillar in the post-Cold War arms control framework, fostering stability and predictability in the nuclear domain. However, with its expiration, the prospects for future arms control agreements have grown uncertain, especially as China’s nuclear capabilities have come into sharper focus.

China’s Growing Nuclear Arsenal:

One of the primary reasons for the expiration of New START is the changing landscape of global nuclear power, with China’s rising nuclear arsenal becoming a central concern. Over the past decade, China has significantly expanded its nuclear capabilities, including the development of new types of missiles, submarines, and warheads. Unlike the U.S. and Russia, which have historically negotiated arms control agreements that cap their nuclear weapons, China has maintained a policy of “nuclear minimalism,” with a much smaller arsenal in comparison to the two superpowers.

However, as China’s military capabilities continue to grow, the United States and Russia have voiced increasing concerns about the lack of transparency and limitations on China’s nuclear forces. Both countries have called for China to join future arms control negotiations, but Beijing has been reluctant, arguing that its nuclear stockpile is still much smaller than that of the U.S. and Russia. This gap, however, is quickly closing as China ramps up its nuclear development, leading to fears of a new arms race.

US-Russia Disagreements:

In the context of the New START expiration, both the U.S. and Russia have blamed each other for the treaty’s expiration, citing a range of political and strategic disagreements. Washington has been particularly vocal about Russia’s non-compliance with some treaty provisions, especially related to inspection and verification protocols. On the other hand, Russia has accused the U.S. of undermining the treaty by pursuing missile defense systems and nuclear modernization programs that it believes violate the spirit of arms control.

Against this backdrop, both the U.S. and Russia have expressed frustration over China’s refusal to participate in arms control talks. The absence of a multilateral approach has made it increasingly difficult to address the global nuclear balance, particularly as China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond grows. The inability of the U.S. and Russia to secure a treaty extension or a new agreement reflects their deepening mistrust and their failure to find common ground on how to incorporate China into global arms control.

China’s Reluctance to Join Arms Control Talks:

From Beijing’s perspective, the idea of joining a trilateral arms control agreement with the U.S. and Russia is neither feasible nor desirable. China’s approach to arms control has been cautious, emphasizing that it will not engage in talks until the U.S. and Russia significantly reduce their nuclear stockpiles. Furthermore, China maintains that its arsenal is for defensive purposes only and that the superpowers should first address their more substantial stockpiles before expanding the scope to include its own.

Beijing’s reluctance is rooted in several factors: the desire to maintain strategic flexibility in its military buildup, a lack of trust in the U.S. and Russia, and the belief that China’s smaller nuclear force is not a threat to global stability. Yet, as the geopolitical dynamics evolve, China’s nuclear policies have become a critical point of contention. The absence of a trilateral treaty or discussions involving China complicates the future of nuclear arms control and increases the risk of a nuclear arms race in the 21st century.

Looking Ahead:

The expiration of the New START treaty signals the end of an era in U.S.-Russia arms control. But the future of global nuclear stability is now intricately tied to China’s stance on arms control. With both the U.S. and Russia increasingly concerned about China’s growing nuclear arsenal, the hope for a renewed arms control framework hinges on Beijing’s willingness to participate in future discussions.

For now, as the U.S. and Russia turn their attention to their own nuclear modernization programs, the world faces an uncertain future in terms of arms control. Without a multilateral approach that includes China, the risk of an unchecked nuclear arms race could undermine decades of progress made in non-proliferation and disarmament efforts. The expiration of the last major treaty marks a turning point — one that could reshape the future of global security, depending on how China and the U.S.-Russia relationship evolve in the coming years.

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