Context: From a lightning war to a precarious truce The conflict erupted on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched a massive aerial campaign against Iran (Operation “Epic Fury” on the American side). The stated objectives were to destroy Iran’s nuclear, ballistic, and military capabilities, eliminate key leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and potentially encourage regime change. Iran responded with massive missile and drone strikes on American bases, Israel, and infrastructure in Gulf countries. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil transport, was heavily disrupted, causing energy prices to surge and widespread economic turmoil. Thousands of people were killed, including many civilians, and hundreds of thousands were displaced. After weeks of intense fighting and an ultimatum issued by President Donald Trump, a two-week ceasefire was concluded on April 7-8, 2026. It notably includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides have claimed victory: Washington says its military objectives were achieved, while Tehran celebrates its resilience and sets firm conditions for any lasting peace (lifting of sanctions, continued control over Hormuz, uranium enrichment rights, etc.). Pakistan’s pivotal role Pakistan has emerged as an unexpected but effective mediator. Thanks to its historic good relations with both countries — a traditional ally of the United States and a neighbor with deep cultural and religious ties to Iran — Islamabad facilitated the ceasefire and offered to host the negotiations. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir have played central roles. The streets of Islamabad are under full security lockdown this weekend, with an exceptional public holiday declared to ensure the protection of the delegations. Who is participating in the negotiations?

American side: The delegation is led by Vice President J.D. Vance, accompanied by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, son-in-law and advisor to Donald Trump. President Trump has said he is “very optimistic.” Iranian side: Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are leading the team. Tehran insists on preconditions: unfreezing of assets, an end to Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and recognition of certain nuclear rights. Pakistani mediation: Discussions are often conducted indirectly through the Pakistani hosts, at least initially.

Major stakes The talks focus on several critical issues:

Consolidation of the ceasefire: Extension to Lebanon and halt to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah. Iranian nuclear program: Limits on uranium enrichment in exchange for lifting sanctions. Sanctions and economy: Unfreezing of Iranian assets and easing of economic measures. Regional security: Partial withdrawal of American forces, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the role of Iranian proxies. Reconstruction: Humanitarian aid and post-conflict stabilization.

Significant gaps remain. Iran demands a clear diplomatic “victory,” while the United States wants concrete guarantees against any future nuclear or ballistic threat. Prospects and risks Many analysts see these negotiations as a historic opportunity for de-escalation after decades of tension. Success could redraw the geopolitical map of the Middle East, lower oil prices, and open the door to new regional diplomacy. However, the risks of failure are high: deep mistrust between the two parties, the influence of Israel (which is not directly at the table), and pressure from hardline factions in both Tehran and Washington. Failure could quickly reignite hostilities. The world, from Beijing to Brussels and Riyadh, is closely following these “Islamabad talks.” As one European diplomat summarized: “This weekend could either mark the end of a short but devastating war or the beginning of an even longer crisis.” The outcome remains uncertain, but history may remember that it was in Pakistan — a country often on the sidelines of major narratives — that a decisive chapter in Middle East peace was written. The coming hours and days will be determining.