In the tangled web of European politics, the notion of a "hegemon" has long been a subject of debate. Throughout history, Europe has seen great powers rise and fall: from the Roman Empire to Napoleonic France, from the British Empire to the Germany of two World Wars. The very idea of hegemony in Europe — dominance not just in military strength, but in economic and political influence — has been shaped by centuries of competition, war, and alliances. Today, however, in a time marked by shifting alliances and global challenges, the question arises: who, in the 21st century, will be Europe's next hegemon?

For much of the post-Cold War era, Europe’s political landscape was dominated by the European Union and its two largest members: Germany and France. Germany, with its powerful economy and central position, was seen as the engine driving EU policy. France, with its rich diplomatic tradition and military prowess, was the leading voice on security and defense matters. Together, these nations navigated the EU’s expansion, created a common currency, and balanced each other out in terms of influence. However, the global stage is no longer the same, and Europe finds itself at a crossroads.

In recent years, the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU — the Brexit — left a significant void in European leadership. The vacuum has led many to ask whether any one country, or group of countries, will emerge as the new dominant force. Germany, long seen as the economic powerhouse of Europe, faces its own challenges. While it is Europe’s largest economy, it is also dealing with an aging population, energy crises, and an over-reliance on external trade partnerships — notably with China. Moreover, German leadership has sometimes been accused of being too cautious, leading to frustrations among European allies who seek more decisive action on matters such as defense, climate change, and EU expansion.

This brings us to France. Under President Emmanuel Macron, France has sought to reclaim its place as the political and diplomatic leader of Europe. Macron’s vision for Europe includes greater strategic autonomy from the United States, particularly on defense matters. He has called for a European army, advocating for military self-sufficiency in an era when NATO’s role and the transatlantic relationship have been questioned. In addition to his strong political stance, France has shown a more aggressive approach in pushing for reforms in the EU, especially regarding migration policy and economic governance.

However, France’s ambitions may be tempered by its own internal issues, including social unrest and economic inequality. As much as Macron may wish to lead Europe into a new era, he faces obstacles in his domestic politics and in gaining consensus among other EU members.

Yet, a third contender for Europe’s leadership has begun to make waves: Poland. A rising power in Central Europe, Poland has defied both Moscow and Brussels in its pursuit of greater national sovereignty and independence. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Poland has stepped forward as a key advocate for Ukrainian sovereignty and a vocal critic of Russia. Its growing influence, especially in Eastern Europe, has raised eyebrows in Brussels. Poland’s leadership style, however, is often seen as more populist and less inclined to align with the EU’s traditional values of compromise and collective decision-making. Nonetheless, Poland’s strategic importance, combined with its growing economic influence, could position it as an essential player in the future of Europe.

The challenge for Europe, then, is not just about who will lead — but how leadership will be structured. Will Europe return to the model of dual leadership with Germany and France at the helm? Will Macron’s vision of a more autonomous and independent Europe become reality? Or will the rise of Central European powers like Poland challenge the traditional Western European dominance and introduce a new geopolitical configuration within the EU?

In this multi-polar landscape, the answer may not be so simple. Hegemony, in a modern European context, could take a different form: a collective leadership rather than dominance by one nation. The EU itself — with its deeply ingrained values of cooperation and consensus — may evolve into a more distributed form of hegemony where influence is shared, but no one nation can claim total control.

Ultimately, Europe’s future leadership will depend on how these powers navigate the delicate balance between national ambition, regional cooperation, and global competition. As the world watches, the question remains: who will truly be Europe’s next hegemon — and will the title of "leader" even matter in a continent that thrives on collaboration over competition?

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Sources (News Outlets Only) The Guardian BBC News New York Times Politico Foreign Affairs