Exxon Mobil's CEO, Darren Woods, made a significant announcement on May 1, 2026, during the company's first-quarter earnings call. He indicated that the market is yet to fully experience the implications of the unprecedented oil supply disruptions triggered by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Woods emphasized that the current oil prices are not reflective of the long-term disruptions, suggesting a potential rise in prices as supply chains feel the pinch.

Woods explained that the market has been temporarily insulated by a large number of loaded oil tankers that were already en route during the initial phases of the conflict. Additionally, strategic petroleum reserves have been released, and commercial inventories have been utilized to mitigate the crisis. However, Woods cautioned that these temporary measures would not suffice as the war drags on. He noted that if the Strait remains closed, oil prices would inevitably rise due to the depletion of these resources.

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that if you look at the unprecedented disruption in the world supply of oil and natural gas, the market hasn't seen the full impact of that yet," Woods stated. He also projected that oil flows from the Persian Gulf would take one to two months to normalize, even after the closure is lifted. This timeline is influenced by logistical challenges, such as the repositioning of tankers and managing supply backlogs.

The volatility of oil futures has been a notable characteristic during the ongoing conflict, with prices fluctuating based on the latest geopolitical developments. Woods mentioned that while U.S. crude oil prices fell slightly to $101.38 per barrel, the overall trends are not aligned with historical disruptions of similar magnitude.

Furthermore, Woods indicated that Exxon's production in the Middle East could decrease by 750,000 barrels per day if the Strait remains ineffective during the second quarter. This decline is particularly impactful as 15% of Exxon's total production is derived from this region. The company's financial outlook further suggested a need for a replenishment of strategic reserves post-conflict, which would add additional demand pressures to the market.

The Iranian attacks on Qatar's liquefied natural gas facilities additionally underscore the conflict's wider implications, contributing to the disruption of Exxon's operations in the region. Although Exxon's shares have experienced a decline amid volatile market conditions, the overall oil price surge since the onset of the war—approximately 57%—demonstrates the current tension and its effects on the energy market.

Woods’ warning serves as a stark reminder of the potential long-term consequences the ongoing conflict poses not only to oil prices but also to global energy stability.