According to White House statements, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was reportedly killed in these attacks. Iran responded almost immediately: volleys of ballistic missiles and drones targeted Israel (notably Jerusalem and Haifa) as well as American bases across the Middle East, including those in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. Civilian casualties have already been reported, with missile debris causing explosions and fires in urban areas. Does this escalation mark the beginning of World War III? Not yet, according to most analysts, but we are undoubtedly entering the most dangerous period since the end of World War II in 1945. This article examines the facts, the context, international reactions, and possible escalation scenarios, drawing on geopolitical analysis and historical parallels. The Launch of Operation “Epic Fury” Origins of the Conflict Tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel go back decades. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has positioned itself as a fierce opponent of the West and Israel, supporting proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various militias in Iraq and Syria. Iran’s nuclear program—seen as an existential threat by Israel and a violation of international agreements by the United States—has been at the heart of the friction. In 2025, several events accelerated the crisis:
Repeated Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, disrupting global trade. Israeli strikes on suspected Iranian nuclear sites, followed by Iranian drone retaliation. Donald Trump’s re-election in November 2024, accompanied by aggressive rhetoric toward Iran: “We will not let the ayatollahs get the bomb,” he declared during his campaign.
Operation “Epic Fury” was launched at dawn on February 28, 2026, local Washington time (approximately 05:00 EST). Israeli F-35 fighter jets, supported by American B-52 bombers, struck underground facilities at Natanz and Fordow, missile factories in Isfahan, and the Revolutionary Guard headquarters in Tehran. U.S. military sources estimate that more than 500 targets were hit in under two hours. In a televised address from the White House, Donald Trump justified the action: “Iran was threatening world peace. Khamenei is dead, and with him the mullah regime will collapse. This is a victory for freedom.” Tehran, however, denies Khamenei’s death, calling the claims “Zionist-American propaganda.” The Iranian Counterstrike Less than an hour after the first strikes, Iran activated its ballistic arsenal. Fateh-110 and Shahab-3 missiles were launched toward Israel, where the Iron Dome intercepted much of the barrage—but not all: impacts were reported in Jerusalem, causing at least 20 civilian deaths according to initial reports. American bases were also hit, with significant damage reported at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Iranian proxies are entering the fray: Hezbollah has promised “thousands of rockets” on northern Israel, while the Houthis have claimed attacks on Saudi ports. As of 5:19 PM EST, continuous news channels are broadcasting live images of smoke plumes rising over Tehran. International Reactions The world is deeply divided, as is often the case in Middle Eastern crises. Support and Condemnation
United States and Israel: Complete unity. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (still in power in 2026) hailed a “historic operation for Israel’s survival.” Iran and its Allies: Tehran is calling for a “holy war” against the “aggressors.” Russia, through Vladimir Putin, condemned the strikes as a “flagrant violation of international law” and promised logistical support to Iran. China, more measured, called for “restraint” but criticized the “unilateral actions” of the United States. Europe and the United Nations: The European Union, led by France and Germany, expressed “deep concern.” French President Emmanuel Macron stated: “This risks setting the entire region ablaze.” UN Secretary-General António Guterres has convened an emergency Security Council session. Gulf Countries: Ambivalence. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Iran’s rivals, remain silent, fearing an escalation that would directly affect them. Qatar, host to American bases, is calling for de-escalation.
Parallels with Ukraine Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted strongly: “Putin already launched World War III in 2022. Ukraine is Europe’s shield, and now Iran could become the shield of the Middle East.” The war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year, sees slow but steady Russian advances, with fears that Moscow may exploit American distraction to intensify operations. Escalation Risks and Possible Scenarios Triggers for Wider Conflict
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz: Iran has threatened to block this strategic chokepoint, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes. Consequence: a global oil shock, with barrel prices potentially reaching $200, triggering a worldwide recession. Involvement of Major Powers: If Russia supplies advanced weapons (such as S-400 systems) or if China intervenes in the South China Sea to divert American attention, the conflict could become global. Taiwan remains a flashpoint: Beijing is multiplying military exercises, possibly taking advantage of perceived American weakness. Proxies and Terrorism: An intensification of Hezbollah or Houthi attacks could widen the front to Lebanon, Yemen, and even Europe through dormant cells. Nuclear Dimension: Should Iran activate nuclear weapons (though its program remains disputed), or should Israel use its own in response, we would enter an apocalyptic scenario.
Why This Is Not (Yet) World War III Unlike 1914 (assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand leading to chain mobilization) or 1939 (invasion of Poland), this conflict remains bilateral for now: United States/Israel vs. Iran. No multiple fronts across several continents, no general mobilization. Analysts such as Vincent Hervouët (French journalist) and Guillaume Ancel (former officer) insist: “This is a serious war, but not a world war.”
Conclusion: A Historic and Alarming Moment February 28, 2026, will go down in history as the day the world came closest to the abyss. For now, this is not World War III, but a high-risk regional war that could spiral out of control in a chain reaction. History teaches us that great wars often begin with “incidents” that are underestimated.