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Heat Without Release: Internal Rivalries and the Limits of Iranian Diplomacy

Iran’s repeated diplomatic setbacks often stem from internal power struggles, where competing factions undermine negotiation efforts and prevent fragile agreements from taking lasting hold.

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Angelio

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Heat Without Release: Internal Rivalries and the Limits of Iranian Diplomacy

In Tehran, the day often begins with layers of sound—traffic folding into prayer calls, radios murmuring headlines, conversations trailing off mid-sentence. Power here does not move in straight lines. It circulates, overlaps, pauses. Like heat trapped between buildings, it rises unevenly, shaped as much by proximity as by authority. From the outside, the state can appear solid, even immovable. From within, it is restless, divided, and perpetually negotiating with itself.

Iran’s diplomacy has long carried the imprint of this internal motion. While official statements speak in unified tones, the machinery behind them turns in competing directions. Elected officials, clerical authorities, military institutions, and advisory councils operate within parallel spheres, each with its own mandate and audience. When negotiations open with the world—over nuclear limits, regional security, or economic sanctions—these internal divisions quietly step into the room as well.

Over the past two decades, moments of diplomatic possibility have repeatedly surfaced, only to thin and drift away. Negotiating teams have advanced cautiously toward compromise, sometimes securing preliminary understandings, only to find their footing challenged back home. Public criticism from rival factions, abrupt policy reversals, or contradictory messaging has often followed. What appears abroad as inconsistency is, domestically, a familiar struggle over who gets to define Iran’s posture and priorities.

The nuclear agreement of the mid-2010s remains the clearest illustration. Negotiated through years of technical detail and political risk, it reflected one faction’s belief that economic relief and global reintegration were worth the constraints imposed. Yet even as it was signed, resistance hardened. Critics framed it as surrender rather than strategy, while parallel power centers limited its implementation and undercut its political legitimacy. When external pressure later intensified, internal consensus proved too fragile to absorb the shock.

This pattern extends beyond nuclear diplomacy. Regional talks, prisoner exchanges, and indirect negotiations with Western states have all moved through the same narrow corridors. Diplomats speak carefully, aware that every concession may be contested not only by foreign counterparts but by domestic rivals waiting to interpret weakness. The result is a negotiating style marked by caution and reversibility, where progress is often provisional and trust difficult to sustain.

For ordinary Iranians, these internal struggles register less as ideology than as consequence. Sanctions linger, currencies fluctuate, opportunities narrow. Diplomatic stalemate becomes part of daily life, shaping prices, travel, and expectations. While factions argue over narratives of resistance or engagement, the costs diffuse quietly through households and businesses, rarely claimed by any single decision-maker.

Yet the infighting is not static. Generational shifts, economic pressure, and regional changes continue to test the balance of power within the system. New voices emerge, while old institutions adapt without fully yielding ground. Diplomacy, in this context, becomes less a single track than a braided one—threads advancing and retreating at different speeds.

As evening settles over the city and lights flicker on across ministries and apartment blocks alike, the question remains unresolved. Iran’s engagement with the world depends not only on foreign policy choices, but on whether its internal actors can align long enough to sustain them. Until then, diplomacy will continue to move forward in brief clearings, then stall again, caught in the crosscurrents of a state still negotiating with itself.

AI Image Disclaimer Visuals are AI-generated and serve as conceptual representations.

Sources International Crisis Group Council on Foreign Relations Brookings Institution Carnegie Endowment for International Peace United Nations Security Council

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