A high-stakes vote Viktor Orbán, leader of the Fidesz-KDNP party, is seeking a fifth consecutive term. A declared ally of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, he represents a nationalist, conservative and Eurosceptic line often described as “illiberal.” His government has faced heavy criticism for institutional reforms, increased media control, and repeated tensions with the European Union over the rule of law, corruption, and foreign policy (particularly regarding Ukraine). Facing him is Péter Magyar, 45, a former Fidesz insider and ex-diplomat, who has emerged as the main challenger. Leading the Tisza party (Respect and Freedom), this centre-right conservative and moderate pro-European candidate denounces corruption and the “political swamp” of the Orbán regime. He promises to unblock frozen European funds, reform healthcare, and fight inequality. His rapid rise has revitalised a previously fragmented opposition. Péter Magyar (left) and Viktor Orbán at campaign rallies. Polls favour Magyar, but the electoral system benefits Orbán Most independent polls show Tisza well ahead, with around 48-52% of voting intentions against 39-41% for Fidesz. Some institutes even give Tisza a double-digit lead. However, the Hungarian electoral system, modified under Orbán (including gerrymandering and redrawn constituencies), strongly favours the ruling party. Tisza would need a significant lead (at least 4-6 points) to secure a simple majority (100 seats) or the two-thirds majority (133 seats) needed to change the Constitution. Record turnout is expected (75-80%), driven by strong mobilisation, especially among young people and those dissatisfied with the system. Mutual accusations of fraud and interference (including Russian meddling, according to Magyar) marked the final days of the campaign. Hungarian voters at the polls today. International alliances and geopolitical stakes Orbán enjoys explicit support from Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, who recently visited Budapest. He also maintains close ties with Moscow. A Magyar victory could realign Hungary towards a more pro-European and pro-NATO stance, facilitating aid to Ukraine and unlocking billions of euros in EU funds. The European Union is closely monitoring this election. An Orbán defeat would come as a relief to Brussels, which has often had to work around Hungarian vetoes on key issues such as aid to Kyiv and migration policy. Conversely, Orbán’s re-election would strengthen the sovereignist camp across Europe. Campaign rallies for Orbán. What scenarios after the vote? Even if Tisza wins, the transition could be chaotic due to Orbán’s control over many institutions. Magyar promises a “modern and European Hungary,” without radical breaks on every issue (he remains cautious on migration). Orbán, for his part, portrays his opponent as a “puppet of Brussels.” Results are expected in the evening or during the night. Whatever the winner, this election represents a turning point: for the first time in more than a decade, Orbán’s long reign is seriously threatened. The outcome of this vote will have repercussions far beyond Hungary’s borders, affecting the political balance of the EU, transatlantic relations, and support for Ukraine. Hungarians are voting today for their future… and indirectly for that of Europe.