German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is embarking on a pivotal three-day trip to the Gulf states, targeting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. This visit, which occurs within just 72 hours, is aimed at establishing new strategic partnerships as Germany seeks to navigate its increasing dependence on the United States for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The backdrop for Merz's visit is the ever-fragile relationship with the US, illustrated by a significant shift in Germany’s energy strategy following the tensions stemming from Russia's aggression toward Ukraine. The EU has drastically reduced its reliance on Russian energy supplies, with Germany now sourcing around 94% of its LNG imports from the US. This dependency raises concerns about geopolitical leverage and potential supply vulnerabilities.

Energy experts warn that this high level of reliance could expose Germany to risks of geopolitical blackmail. As Susanne Nies from the Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin noted, it is critical for Germany to diversify its sources, suggesting alternatives like pipeline gas from Norway or LNG from Canada and Australia.

Merz’s discussions will extend beyond energy to include defense cooperation, reflecting a multifaceted approach to diplomacy in the region. With ongoing tensions related to the US-Iran relationship and concerns over American military engagements, securing defense ties becomes a priority. Reports indicate that Gulf states are showing interest in acquisitions like the Airbus A400M military transport aircraft.

This strategic pivot also highlights Germany's readiness to adapt its energy import policies. Historically, Gulf states have supplied oil and, more recently, LNG. As the demand for energy waxes in Europe, Merz's administration recognizes the need for long-term partnerships with traditional energy-exporting countries in the Middle East.

Accompanying Merz is a significant business delegation, aiming to not only negotiate energy deals but also to explore export markets for German industries. However, this strategy doesn’t come without scrutiny; media attention is focused on whether Merz will address human rights issues prevalent in these Gulf regimes, particularly in light of ongoing reforms in places like Saudi Arabia.

In summary, Merz's visit to the Gulf is a crucial step in Germany's effort to curb its energy dependency on the US while simultaneously bolstering defense and economic ties with key partners in an increasingly complex global environment.