The Announcement That Changed Everything On February 28, the Revolutionary Guards broadcast VHF radio messages to all vessels: “No ship is authorized to pass.” On March 2, Ebrahim Jabari, a senior advisor to the IRGC Commander-in-Chief, was explicit: “The Strait of Hormuz is closed. If any vessel attempts to transit, we will set it ablaze.” On March 4, the IRGC declared it now has “complete control” of the area and considers it a war zone. Drones and fast attack boats have already intercepted or damaged several tankers, forcing crews to turn off their AIS (Automatic Identification System) in desperate attempts to slip through undetected. Major Shipping Companies Have Already Withdrawn Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies have suspended all transits. Insurers have outright withdrawn war-risk coverage. As a result, large tankers are either stuck in the Persian Gulf or rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope—a detour adding 10–15 days and 40% more fuel cost. Two Versions of Reality
Iranian version: “The strait is closed and fully under Iranian control. Not a drop of oil will leave without our approval.” American version (CENTCOM): “The strait is not legally closed, but it is paralyzed by threats. The U.S. Navy stands ready to escort tankers if required.”
In practice, this is a de facto closure. No commercial vessel dares transit without massive military escort. Global Economic Shockwave
20% of the world’s oil and a significant portion of Qatari LNG normally pass through the strait. Crude prices have already surged: Brent trading in the $80–85 range, with analysts openly discussing $100+ if the blockade lasts beyond two weeks. Europe and Asia are under pressure on LNG stocks. North America does not import directly via Hormuz, but pump prices follow the global market.
In Quebec: expect gasoline prices to rise 15–25 cents per litre within the next 7–10 days if the situation persists. Truckers, farmers, and airlines will pass on these increases almost immediately. What Happens Next? The United States has stated the Navy could begin escorting tankers “as soon as feasible.” Iran has threatened to sink any escorted vessel. Emergency back-channel talks are underway via Oman and Turkey, but no agreement has emerged so far. The Strait of Hormuz is not just a shipping lane—it is one of the planet’s most strategic chokepoints. Its forced paralysis recalls the oil shocks of the 1970s… but in the age of drones and precision strikes. The situation is evolving hour by hour. Stay tuned: the next 48 hours will be decisive.