In a recent phone call that underscored the high stakes of U.S.-China relations, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged former President Donald Trump to be "prudent" when it comes to supplying arms to Taiwan, signaling China’s growing concern over the geopolitical consequences of American military support to the island.

The conversation, which took place in the wake of escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait, served as a reminder of the fragile diplomatic balance between the U.S. and China on matters related to Taiwan — an issue that has long been one of the most contentious points in their bilateral relationship.

For China, Taiwan is considered a breakaway province, a part of its sovereign territory that it has vowed to reunify with the mainland, by force if necessary. To Beijing, the idea of supplying arms to Taiwan is seen not only as a direct challenge to its territorial integrity but also as a serious provocation that could lead to regional instability. Xi’s call to Trump reflected these concerns, as he expressed the importance of handling the Taiwan issue with caution.

While the U.S. has long maintained a policy of "strategic ambiguity" regarding Taiwan — supplying arms under the Taiwan Relations Act but stopping short of full recognition — the rhetoric and actions of American politicians have at times signaled greater support for the island's defense. In recent years, as Taiwan’s political environment has shifted towards a more pro-independence stance, U.S. arms sales have become a point of friction between Washington and Beijing.

Xi’s diplomatic message to Trump came with a sense of urgency. As China continues to assert its military power in the region, particularly with increased military maneuvers around Taiwan and in the South China Sea, the U.S. faces a delicate balancing act. While supporting Taiwan’s self-defense is an important element of U.S. foreign policy, any action deemed too aggressive by Beijing risks exacerbating already fraught relations.

In his conversation with Trump, Xi urged the U.S. to carefully weigh the potential consequences of further arms supplies to Taiwan, warning that it could push the region closer to conflict. "We urge the U.S. side to act prudently, honor its commitments to China, and refrain from actions that could further escalate tensions," a Chinese official quoted Xi as saying.

The call highlights the broader struggle between the U.S. and China for influence in the Indo-Pacific region, where Taiwan remains a flashpoint for both military and diplomatic clashes. The island's strategic location, along with its economic ties to the global tech supply chain, makes it not only a political issue but an economic one as well. For China, the idea of Taiwan drifting further into Washington's sphere of influence threatens its vision of regional hegemony.

For Trump, whose administration was marked by a more confrontational approach to China, this exchange offers an opportunity to assess how his stance on Taiwan might evolve in light of growing tensions in the region. The former president, who has long supported a more robust U.S. response to China's activities, may see his conversations with Xi as a way to understand and perhaps recalibrate his approach to Beijing.

For the Biden administration, Xi’s comments come as a reminder that the Taiwan issue remains one of the most sensitive in U.S.-China relations. While President Biden has taken steps to reaffirm American support for Taiwan’s defense, it remains unclear how far the U.S. is willing to go in challenging China’s claims over the island.

As tensions between Washington and Beijing continue to escalate on multiple fronts — from trade to human rights to military posturing — the delicate issue of Taiwan remains central to the broader geopolitical struggle. Xi’s warning to Trump about the dangers of supplying arms to Taiwan underscores just how volatile this issue remains. How both sides navigate the future of Taiwan will be critical not only for the security of the region but also for the stability of global geopolitics.

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