Background: From Rapid Escalation to a Last-Minute Agreement The conflict erupted on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched a large-scale aerial campaign against Iran, targeting military, nuclear, and ballistic missile sites, as well as command centers. This included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Tehran responded with hundreds of missiles and drones against Israel, U.S. bases, and infrastructure in the Gulf countries. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for 20% of the world’s oil, was partially blocked, causing oil prices to surge. After 39 days of fighting, U.S. President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum: a devastating strike on Iranian civilian infrastructure if the strait was not reopened. Just hours before the deadline, a deal was reached for a two-week truce, conditional on the secure reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a halt to direct attacks between U.S. and Iranian forces. Negotiations are scheduled to begin on Friday in Pakistan, with U.S. Vice President JD Vance participating. Both sides are claiming victory: Washington speaks of a “total victory,” while Tehran presents the agreement as an American concession in the face of its resilience. Immediate Weaknesses of the Ceasefire As early as April 8, air raid sirens sounded in several countries in the region, and Israel launched massive attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing more than 250 people according to Lebanese authorities. Iran views these strikes as a violation of the ceasefire, arguing that it covers all “axes of resistance” (including Lebanon). Washington and Tel Aviv counter that the agreement is limited to direct U.S.-Iran exchanges and does not apply to Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clearly stated that the truce does not mark “the end of the campaign” and that Israel’s objectives — permanently weakening Iran and its proxies — remain unchanged. Iranian sources report that ship movements in the Strait of Hormuz remain limited or blocked, while Iran accuses the United States and Israel of multiple violations. Key Issues for Upcoming Negotiations Discussions in Islamabad will address deeply divergent points:

Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment The withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region The lifting of sanctions against Iran Compensation for damages and an end to attacks on Lebanon and other proxies

Experts describe the agreement as “precarious” or “tenuous.” A prolonged ceasefire could become de facto permanent without a comprehensive deal, but the risk of renewed hostilities remains high, especially if Israel continues its offensive in Lebanon. Markets reacted positively, with oil prices falling and stock markets rising, but this optimism could be short-lived.

Regional and International Consequences The conflict has already caused significant loss of life in Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and the Gulf countries, with economic damage estimated at over $120 billion for Arab states. Millions of people have been displaced. France, through President Emmanuel Macron, has called for Lebanon to be explicitly included in the truce framework. The international community is watching with concern, fearing a new spiral of violence that could further destabilize energy prices and maritime security.

A Pause or a Reprieve? This ceasefire represents a welcome breathing space after a war that nearly degenerated into a humanitarian and energy catastrophe. However, the fundamental disagreements over Iran’s regional role, its nuclear program, and Israel’s security persist. Without rapid progress in the Islamabad negotiations, the truce risks collapsing before the end of the two weeks. The Middle East remains on a knife-edge. Diplomacy will require all its subtlety — and a great deal of goodwill from all parties — to turn this fragile pause into a lasting peace. The recent history of the region unfortunately shows that ceasefires are often easier to announce than to maintain. The situation is evolving rapidly; this article reflects information available as of April 9, 2026.