Texas Takes Center Stage The Lone Star State is drawing the most national attention. Both Senate primaries (one Republican, one Democratic) are breaking records for spending and intensity. On the Republican side: Longtime incumbent Senator John Cornyn (in office since 2002) faces a revolt from the MAGA base. He is being challenged by:
Ken Paxton, the state’s Attorney General, an ultra-conservative figure despite his legal scandals and a failed impeachment attempt. Wesley Hunt, a U.S. Representative from the Houston area, representing a younger, military-oriented wing of the right.
None of the three appears positioned to reach the 50% +1 threshold needed to win outright. A runoff (second round) on May 26, 2026, is highly likely. This primary is testing just how far loyalty to Trump and rejection of “establishment Republicans” can go. On the Democratic side: The contest pits two very different profiles against each other:
Jasmine Crockett, a U.S. Representative from Dallas, who has become a national star thanks to her direct style and viral positions. James Talarico, a progressive state representative, former teacher and seminarian, known for his powerful speeches on secularism and social rights.
Polls show a tight race. The winner will face the daunting task of trying to flip a Republican-held seat in a state that still leans heavily Republican at the federal level. Also worth noting: The primary to replace Ken Paxton as Attorney General is crowded and fiery, featuring figures like Chip Roy, Joan Huffman, and Mayes Middleton. North Carolina: A Highly Strategic Open Seat The retirement of Republican Senator Thom Tillis has opened up a coveted seat in this swing state. Democrats: Former Governor Roy Cooper (popular after six statewide wins) is the clear favorite to secure the nomination. Republicans: Michael Whatley, former RNC chair and a close Trump ally (who has received his official endorsement), leads in the polls against several more radical challengers. Analysts view North Carolina as one of the few truly competitive Senate seats in 2026. A Democratic win here could significantly boost their chances of retaking the Senate majority. Arkansas: More Local but Still Symbolic Races The primaries in Arkansas draw less national attention, but certain local contests are making headlines (notably a sheriff’s race where one candidate faces a murder charge). Overall Outlook for November 2026
Senate: 35 seats up for grabs (22 Republican-held, 13 Democratic-held). Republicans start with a narrow majority (around 53-45 or 53-47 depending on exact post-2024 counts). They are favored to retain control, but losses in North Carolina, Texas, or elsewhere could change everything. House of Representatives: All 435 seats are up for renewal. Republicans hold a slim majority (roughly 220-215). Current forecasts (Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, etc.) identify about 18-20 truly competitive “toss-up” districts. Democrats need a net gain of just 3 seats to reclaim the majority—an achievable goal in a typical midterm cycle (the opposition almost always gains seats). National context: The war against Iran, oil-driven inflation, tariffs, and Trump’s fluctuating popularity dominate the debate. Today’s primaries will serve as a barometer: How far is the Republican base willing to punish “moderate traitors”? Can Democrats mobilize around charismatic figures like Crockett?
Full results from the March 3 primaries will come in during the evening (polls close between 7:30 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. depending on time zones). Several races may head to a May runoff. The 2026 midterms are shaping up to be among the most unpredictable and expensive in recent history. It all starts today in Texas.