Since the launch of Operation Epic Fury at the end of February (in coordination with Israel) against Iran, Tehran has retaliated by severely disrupting maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf. Mines, drone strikes, and attacks on commercial vessels have turned the strait into a high-risk zone. The fallout: oil prices have skyrocketed, U.S. gasoline has jumped more than 20%, and energy-dependent economies (Europe, Japan, South Korea, China…) are reeling. Trump, who just days ago boasted of having “completely destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capabilities,” now faces a tougher reality. On Truth Social, he initially claimed “many countries” would send ships to support the U.S. But in a Financial Times interview and statements aboard Air Force One, his tone turned sharply insistent. “I’ve asked about seven countries to come in and protect their own territory, because it is their territory,” he declared, listing nations like France, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea… and even China, which imports nearly 90% of its oil via this route. The international response has so far been lukewarm at best.

Germany was blunt: “This is not NATO’s war.” The United Kingdom is hesitating, despite a call with Keir Starmer. France remains cautious, with no firm commitment. Japan and South Korea cite pacifist constitutions and energy vulnerabilities. China has stayed publicly silent.

Confronted with this wall of reluctance, Trump pulled out the heavy artillery: “If NATO allies don’t participate, it will be very bad for the future of NATO.” He even threatened to postpone a planned summit with Xi Jinping and warned that Washington “will remember” any country that refuses to help. This thinly veiled ultimatum echoes his 2018–2020 criticisms of Europeans “free-riding” on American protection. But this time the stakes are explosive: an active war, surging energy prices threatening midterm elections, and a demand that even China dispatch warships to a conflict zone. On the Iranian side, the new Supreme Leader has vowed to maintain the blockade “until the aggression ends.” Analysts fear further escalation — escorting tankers with U.S. (and allied) destroyers could turn the strait into a permanent naval battlefield. For now, the United States insists its navy will begin escorting tankers “very soon,” but without a broad coalition, the effort risks remaining limited and extremely costly. Trump is betting on economic panic to force allies’ hands. It’s a high-stakes gamble: if no one moves, Washington could find itself isolated before a global chokepoint. The world is holding its breath… and watching the gas pumps. In this geopolitical chess game, the first to blink may end up paying the steepest bill.