On May 13, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in hopes of securing China's help in addressing the costly and unpopular conflict with Iran. However, analysts warn that Xi may not provide the support Trump desires.

While Xi might be open to encouraging Iran's leaders to return to negotiations, he is unlikely to cut economic ties with Iran, which China views as a vital partner in the Middle East. Instead, China continues to supply Iran with essential dual-use goods for its military, complicating Trump's requests.

Trump possesses powerful economic tools to exert pressure on China, including the possible threat of sanctions on major Chinese banks. Yet, employing these tools could result in costs that are unacceptable for the U.S. Moreover, hopes for a deal between the U.S. and Iran have diminished, leaving the ceasefire increasingly unstable.

Beijing, as the largest buyer of Iranian oil, remains a key player in potentially swaying Tehran's decisions. Nevertheless, China's strategic interests can create a conflict in its approach; while it wants to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open for trade—critical for global oil supplies—it also values its alliance with Iran as a counterbalance to U.S. influence in the region.

At the summit, analysts anticipate that Xi will approach discussions from a position of confidence, emboldened by recent shifts in U.S. policy and an understanding that the U.S. conflict in Iran diverts American attention away from the Asia-Pacific region.

Despite Trump's assertion that he does not need Chinese assistance in managing the situation with Iran, the delicate balance of cooperation, economic interest, and geopolitical aspirations remains a significant hurdle for both leaders heading into their meeting.