WASHINGTION/NEW YORK – A U.S. soldier who faces charges for allegedly using classified information to bet on the capture of Nicolas Maduro was prevented from opening an account on Kalshi, a competitor in the prediction market industry. Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, aged 38, is accused of earning over $400,000 by making numerous bets on the site Polymarket during the lead-up to the operation that resulted in Maduro’s capture on January 3, 2026.

According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Van Dyke attempted to create an account on Kalshi shortly before the operation but was blocked due to the platform's identity verification safeguards. These measures differ from Polymarket, which allows users to open accounts without providing identification, allowing Van Dyke to place his bets while masking his geographic location.

Van Dyke placed approximately $33,000 in bets on Polymarket in late December and early January, which resulted in significant profits tied to predictions about U.S. military actions in Venezuela. Following his successful betting, he allegedly attempted to conceal his activities by seeking to delete his account and changing his email address associated with a cryptocurrency exchange.

The Justice Department’s charges against Van Dyke mark the first instance of insider trading prosecutions involving a prediction market. Authorities have expressed concern over the transparency and integrity of such platforms, especially given recent incidents of unusual trading patterns that coincide with significant political or military events.

Kalshi and Polymarket have both updated their rules to prevent illegal activities, tightening the regulations governing trades that involve sensitive information. The investigation into Van Dyke reflects broader scrutiny into how prediction markets operate, particularly regarding their precautions against insider trading.

As the legal proceedings unfold, the regulatory environment surrounding prediction markets is likely to evolve, with agencies emphasizing the necessity of maintaining strict compliance to prevent misconduct in such platforms.