There is a certain stillness in statistics that belies the storms they describe — like hearing the quiet hush of snow even as the world shivers beneath it. In the unfolding years of the Russia-Ukraine war, as landscapes of land and lives have been transformed by nearly four years of fierce struggle, a new study has drawn a stark portrait of human cost that is as vast as it is sobering. A think-tank analysis suggests that the combined tally of Russian and Ukrainian military casualties — including those killed, wounded or missing — is nearing two million.
The study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based research organization, folds together data from open sources, Western and Ukrainian assessments, and battlefield reports to trace the contours of a conflict that has reshaped the terrain of Europe. Though the precise figures are a subject of debate and dispute — with both sides withholding full official data — the scale of loss outlined is undeniably immense, placing this conflict among the deadliest in recent memory.
According to these estimates, Russia’s military forces have borne the heaviest brunt of casualties, with around 1.2 million killed, wounded or missing since the invasion began in February 2022. Within that number, the think-tank projects as many as 325,000 Russian troops killed, a figure larger than the battle deaths recorded by many states in past post-World War II conflicts. Ukraine’s losses, while lower in absolute terms, remain tragically high: the study places them between 500,000 and 600,000, including up to 140,000 deaths.
Behind these figures lie stories of homes left empty, families altered forever, and soldiers whose names may never be known beyond the roll of official record. In international terms, the numbers suggest a human toll not witnessed since mid-century wars, and they underscore how prolonged attritional fighting has reshaped both societies. Slow territorial advances — measured in mere meters some days — have stood in stark contrast to the relentless sum of losses, a reflection of grinding warfare that has sapped strength and momentum from both sides.
This study’s findings come as the war enters its fourth year, even as echoes of diplomatic efforts and intermittent peace talks continue to reverberate across global capitals without yielding decisive resolutions. The Kremlin has publicly disputed the study’s methodology and figures, maintaining that only official Russian defense figures — which remain limited and rarely updated — hold authority. Western analysts, meanwhile, note that discrepancies between official accounts and independent studies are common in modern conflicts, where battlefield realities often outpace official disclosures.
For Ukraine, a country with a population and military infrastructure smaller than that of its adversary, the relative impact of such losses resonates deeply. Even as Ukrainian forces engage in defensive operations across multiple fronts, the human cost has shaped the tenor of social life at home and abroad, influencing policy debates, humanitarian concerns, and the broader sense of collective resilience.
The CSIS study is also a reminder of the limits of pinning down exact figures in a conflict where chaos is part of the landscape and information is often fragmented or politicized. Yet such estimates — as staggering as they may be — provide a lens through which the scale of suffering can be grasped, not as mere numbers but as markers of profound human change.
In the latest reporting, analysts underscore that while neither Russia nor Ukraine publish fully transparent casualty data, the available independent estimates from the CSIS and corroborating Western sources place combined military casualties — killed, wounded or missing — at about 1.8 million by late 2025, potentially reaching near two million by spring 2026 if current trends continue. Neither side has formally confirmed these figures, and the Kremlin has dismissed them as overstated.
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Sources The Guardian, AP News, Sky News, Belgian News Agency, The Independent.