There are moments in international life that feel like shifts in the wind — subtle at first, but enough to bend the tallest trees and make seasoned travelers pause. As Europe prepares to gather for one of its most consequential defence dialogues, the Munich Security Conference, that very feeling has settled over capitals from Lisbon to Warsaw. What was once a familiar rhythm of transatlantic cooperation now bears an undercurrent of uncertainty, and many experts say the cause lies in the evolving posture of the United States under President Donald Trump.

In recent years, the post-World War II world order — an architecture of alliances, treaties, and shared norms upheld in large part by U.S. leadership — has been a comfortable if imperfect backdrop for European security. But as the Munich Security Report 2026 makes clear, voices in Europe now describe this order as under strain. They contend that sweeping policy shifts and transactional “wrecking-ball politics” emanating from Washington are eroding the frameworks that once defined cooperation among allies.

For many European officials, this is less about dramatic fracture and more about the cumulative effect of shifting priorities. Opinions in Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom suggest a growing sense that familiar guarantees — from collective defence to predictable diplomacy — are no longer as dependable as they once were. A majority in polls released with the Munich report say they fear that recent U.S. policy moves could weaken rather than strengthen the rules-based order that emerged after 1945.

Part of this anxiety comes from what some see as a retreat from “liberal internationalism” — an approach that once underpinned NATO and other multilateral arrangements. The report notes that Washington’s emphasis on burden-sharing and a recalibration of defence commitments has prompted discussions about European autonomy in security matters. In this view, the era of automatic reliance on U.S. leadership is giving way to a moment in which Europe must consider how to sustain its own defence capabilities independently.

Yet while concerns are being voiced, official dialogue continues. U.S. representatives, including a significant delegation led by the Secretary of State and members of Congress, are attending the Munich conference with a stated goal of bridging the trust gap and reaffirming commitment to the transatlantic alliance. Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the conference, has described the gathering as a chance to address what he calls a “crisis of confidence” and to keep lines of cooperation open between Europe and the United States.

The atmosphere is neither uniformly bleak nor confrontational. Instead, there is a persistent sense of recalibration — one in which old assumptions are tested and new responsibilities are weighed. European leaders recognize that the alliance with Washington remains vital even amid debates about emphasis and direction. At the same time, there is renewed discussion about what it means for Europe to share more of the defence burden and to invest in its collective capacities.

As the Munich Security Conference gets underway, the question hanging over the debates is not just what direction Western security should take, but how shared that direction remains. Europe’s defense discourse, long shaped by partnership with the United States, now grapples with the reality that the world order of past generations may not be the one that future generations will inherit.

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Sources Reuters The Guardian BBC News Financial Times Al Jazeera