In the corridors of power in Moscow, where decisions are often cloaked in caution and history seems always near the surface, a new kind of unease is spreading — not from foreign capitals or diplomatic forums, but from within the Kremlin’s own economic apparatus. Like a quiet tremor before a storm, officials have begun to issue stark warnings that could reshape how Russia’s leaders view both the future of their economy and the war it continues to wage.

According to sources familiar with discussions inside the Russian government, senior officials have warned President Vladimir Putin that a serious financial crisis could hit Russia as soon as this summer, driven by shrinking oil revenues, widening budget deficits, and the mounting costs of Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine. These internal cautions, reportedly shared with The Washington Post, reflect growing fear that Russia’s fiscal resilience is weakening after more than four years of conflict and sanctions.

Officials and business figures quoted in those reports said that oil revenue — long the backbone of Russia’s budget — has sharply declined and that spiraling inflation is squeezing households and companies alike. Restaurants have closed and layoffs are rising, with some executives warning that the country may have only “three or four months” before crisis conditions truly take hold. Amid these pressures, economists see heightened risk of a banking sector downturn, with defaults on loans and nonpayments rising as borrowers struggle under high interest rates and weak demand.

The warnings come against the backdrop of a war that has, in many ways, become central to Russia’s national identity under Putin. As some foreign leaders have publically suggested, Russia’s invasion is now seen by analysts as “too big for Putin to fail” — meaning that retreat or negotiated compromise is politically and strategically fraught for the Kremlin. Finnish President Alexander Stubb, for instance, warned that Kremlin leadership may feel they cannot afford to end the war because of the weight of its economic and symbolic commitments.

Economists and analysts point to several interlocking problems: decades‑high interest rates that dampen consumption and investment, weak oil and gas export prices that erode foreign exchange inflows, and a growing deficit that risks consuming national reserves. Some estimates, including from Kremlin‑linked think tanks, have suggested that the banking system could face systemic stresses by late 2026 if non‑performing loans and financial imbalances continue to grow.

Adding to the complexity is the geopolitical landscape: Western nations continue to tighten sanctions and enforcement, including measures aimed at curbing Russia’s oil shipping via opaque “shadow fleets.” Such actions could further depress energy revenues and intensify fiscal strain.

For ordinary Russians, the economic squeeze has already translated into real‑world consequences in some regions, where delayed wage payments and shrinking budgets for public services have been reported. These developments hint at deeper structural weaknesses in regional finances that may foreshadow wider fallout if national trends worsen.

Yet, despite these warnings, the Kremlin so far shows no sign of altering its core strategic direction. The leadership appears committed to sustaining military operations, suggesting that economic distress, if it arrives, may create difficult choices about spending priorities and domestic policy — and could influence how Russia manages its prolonged engagement in Ukraine.

In this moment of mounting pressure, Russia’s dual imperatives — economic stability and continuation of a costly war effort — sit in a fragile and uneasy balance, reshaping risk perceptions within the capital and beyond.

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Sources • Fortune • The Washington Post (via aggregated report) • Reuters • Bloomberg‑linked analysis • Foreign Intelligence Service (Ukraine reporting)